Deep State: Maximum Pressure on Russia as Ukraine Crumbles

The Trip Nobody Believes Was Routine

CIA Director Ratcliffe's surprise flight to Moscow aboard a massive C-17 Globemaster from Latvia has produced a fog of confident accounts. Politico cites officials familiar with the situation, while the Wall Street Journal cites its own people familiar with the matter — who say otherwise. Alex Christoforou 00:23 “Politico cites officials familiar with the situation, while the Wall Street Journal cites its own people familiar with the matter who say otherwise” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 00:23 Trump's version, given in an interview with Glenn Beck: it was almost routine. Alex Christoforou 00:33 “Trump says it was almost routine.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 00:33 Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris spend the episode cutting through the rumors, and their starting point is that almost nothing about this trip fits the word routine.

The official version, Mercouris notes, comes from both the American and the Russian government: a nothing-special meeting with Naryshkin and other heads of Russian special services, a "very useful" discussion of all sorts of issues, followed — obviously — by a briefing with Trump himself, H.R. McMaster and a whole bunch of other people. If you believe this official version, he says, then he has a bridge to sell you: this is not a routine visit. Alexander Mercouris 01:54 “Now, if you believe this official version, then I have to sell you a bridge. This is not a routine visit.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 01:54 His counter-reading starts with who Ratcliffe is: one of the most powerful people in the Trump administration, a very tough figure whose authority has grown since he removed Tulsi Gabbard from the scene — and who, frankly, is running the war in Ukraine on behalf of the United States. Alexander Mercouris 02:17 “who is obviously one of the most powerful people in the Trump administration, in the administration, who is certainly a very tough figure, whose authority has grown since he managed to remove Tulsi Gabbard from the scene, and who, frankly, is running the war in Ukraine on behalf of the United States” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 02:17 And the war he is running is, on this account, largely the agency's own: they are the ones who provide intelligence to the Ukrainians, supply unmanned technologies to Ukraine, and direct drones at targets inside Russia. Alexander Mercouris 02:38 “I mean, they are the ones who provide intelligence to the Ukrainians. They are the ones who supply unmanned technologies to Ukraine. They direct drones at targets inside Russia.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 02:38

Trump, after all, has used him for exactly this before: it was Ratcliffe who traveled to Cuba a few weeks ago, met its leadership, and tried to force the Cubans to surrender. Alexander Mercouris 03:32 “it was Ratcliffe who traveled to Cuba a few weeks ago and met with its leadership, trying to force the Cubans to surrender” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 03:32 And if the mission were merely intelligence-channel business, quieter venues existed — Dubai, Qatar, or Turkey, where William Burns met Naryshkin in the fall of 2022: again trying to force the Russians to surrender after Ukraine's offensive in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Alexander Mercouris 04:28 “as CIA Director William Burns did when he met with the head of Russian foreign intelligence, Sergei Naryshkin, in the fall of 2022. Again, trying to force the Russians to surrender after Ukraine's offensive in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 04:28 Going to Moscow, in the hosts' reading, meant going for the top: Ratcliffe wanted to meet with the top Russian government — definitely Lavrov, and definitely Putin. Alexander Mercouris 04:53 “Ratcliffe went to Moscow because he wanted to meet with the top Russian government. He definitely wanted to meet with Lavrov and definitely with Putin.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 04:53

The Collapsing Front That Sent Him

The first of the two reasons for the trip, in Mercouris's reconstruction, is that the war is going very badly for Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is being pushed back along the entire front line; the Russians are creating a very powerful bridgehead in northeastern Ukraine; Orekhov in Zaporizhzhia Oblast will soon fall, and Zaporizhzhia itself will be next. Alexander Mercouris 05:20 “the Ukrainian army is being pushed back along the entire front line. The Russians are now creating a very powerful bridgehead in northeastern Ukraine. The city of Orekhov in Zaporizhzhia Oblast will soon fall, and Zaporizhzhia itself will be next.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 05:20 The fortress line the Ukrainians spent years building with American assistance is giving way: the belt of fortresses — the line of cities built for so long in Donbas with American assistance — is collapsing. Alexander Mercouris 05:47 “the line of cities that Ukrainians built for so long in Donbas with American assistance” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 05:47 Ukraine, on his reading, is destroying itself. The economic picture is its own collapse: the ports are destroyed, the Black Sea is blocked, the Russians are constantly striking at Kyiv — they did it again the night before this video was recorded — and there are not enough missiles for air defense. Alexander Mercouris 06:01 “The Ukrainian economy is in deep crisis. The ports are destroyed. The Black Sea is blocked. The Russians are constantly striking at Kyiv. They did it again the night before this video was recorded. There are not enough missiles for air defense.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 06:01 And the signature operation of the war's CIA chapter has failed: the drone offensive that the CIA, Zelensky, and Fedorov jointly prepared has largely failed — in his opinion, a complete failure, at huge cost. Alexander Mercouris 06:26 “The drone offensive that the CIA, Zelensky, and Fedorov jointly prepared against the Russians has largely failed. In fact, in my opinion, it's a complete failure. It cost huge sums of money.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 06:26

Threats, Bribes and a Rejected Offer

So Ratcliffe went to Moscow to talk to Lavrov and Putin, to try to convince the Russians to stop — carrying, as Mercouris puts it, the usual mix that Americans bring to such matters: threats of escalation, certainly; proposals that may not concern Ukraine; offers of financial and economic benefits; easing of sanctions, that sort of thing. Alexander Mercouris 07:01 “Threats of escalation, certainly, proposals that may not concern Ukraine, offers of financial and economic benefits, easing of sanctions, that sort of thing.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 07:01 Plus the proposal on Ukraine itself from the previous episode: a buffer zone in Donbas with a free economic zone — reported just before the trip to be presented to the Russians on the very Tuesday Ratcliffe was in Moscow, delivered personally to Lavrov. Alexander Mercouris 07:27 “a buffer zone in Donbas, a free economic zone. A few days before Ratcliffe left for Moscow, reports emerged that the Americans were going to present this proposal to the Russians on the very day Ratcliffe was in Moscow” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 07:27 The usual envoys had been left standing: Witkoff and Kushner were relegated to the background — the Russians don't want to see these people, and they are not taken seriously. Alexander Mercouris 07:54 “Witkoff and Kushner were relegated to the background. The Russians don't want to see these people. They are not taken seriously.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 07:54 And the visit ended with everything carried home: he left with all the threats, he left with all the bribes, and key figures in Moscow refused to meet with him. Alexander Mercouris 08:09 “He left with all the threats. He left with all the bribes. And key figures in Moscow refused to meet with him.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 08:09

The point of the whole campaign, Mercouris argues, is not to stop a Russian attack on Europe but to keep the Russians tied down: not to force the Russians to stop some aggressive attack on Europe — this is to force the Russians to stay in Ukraine. Alexander Mercouris 14:22 “Not to force the Russians to stop some aggressive attack on Europe. This is to force the Russians to stay in Ukraine.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 14:22 It is one coordinated operation — Keith Kellogg was also in Kyiv, part of the same orchestra, and Mike Pence and the rest are all there, all trying to keep Ukraine in the battle and force the Russians to stop Alexander Mercouris 14:35 “He was also in Kyiv. He was also part of this, well, this orchestra. And Mike Pence, they're all there. They are all trying to keep Ukraine in the battle and try to force the Russians to stop. This is clearly a large-scale, organized and coordinated operation” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 14:35 — and it has already met its answer: the top Russians, Lavrov and Putin, refused to meet with Ratcliffe and did not accept his offer. The Russians know they are winning, and they are not going to stop. Alexander Mercouris 15:03 “the top Russians, Lavrov and Putin, refused to meet with Ratcliffe. They did not accept his offer. The Russians know they are winning, and they are not going to stop.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 15:03

The Warning Story Is the Threat

Around the trip, a wave of European warnings. Macron claims that Russia is going to take some step against Europe, against Great Britain. Alex Christoforou 09:27 “Macron, for example, claims that Russia is going to take some step against Europe, against Great Britain.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 09:27 Politico, citing sources familiar with the situation, claims that Ratcliffe arrived to warn Putin not to take steps against the Baltic countries Alex Christoforou 09:32 “Politico, in its article, citing sources familiar with the situation, claims that Ratcliffe arrived to warn Putin not to take steps against the Baltic countries” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 09:32 — the verified Politico report of August 26, 2026, headlined "CIA chief used Moscow visit to warn Russia against attacks," reports exactly that warning trip on the basis of officials familiar with the situation. Politico Corroborates CIA chief used Moscow visit to warn Russia against attacks Verified Media Report Read Source Article Christoforou's fear is that the next step could be manufactured: more false-flag operations — provocations that can be directed against Europe to support the narrative about Russia Alex Christoforou 10:21 “And these provocations can be directed against Europe to support the narrative about Russia.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 10:21 — a Russia waging some kind of operation, attack, or "hybrid attack," whatever that means.

Mercouris's inversion is the sharpest move of the episode: the warning stories are themselves the threat. It's not the Russians who are going to march on Vilnius or Paris. It is the Americans who are now threatening the Russians. Alexander Mercouris 11:29 “It's not the Russians who are going to march on Vilnius or Paris. It is the Americans who are now threatening the Russians.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 11:29 The message he reconstructs: if you don't stop, we'll find ways to get you into trouble in Europe — and we will spread even more stories about you allegedly threatening Europe, which will give us a reason to threaten you. The moment is dangerous precisely because Ukraine is losing quickly: a moment of great tension and great danger, in which the losers retreat, become desperate, and go to any lengths. Alexander Mercouris 12:41 “we are now in a moment of great tension, great danger precisely because Ukraine is losing, and losing quickly. They retreat, they become desperate” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 12:41 Hence the barrage that accompanies the trip: someone from the Vatican sent to Moscow as well, since the Europeans can't go Alexander Mercouris 12:55 “They also sent someone from the Vatican to Moscow.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 12:55 , the drone found at a German airport — and, even in the Italian media, the La Repubblica story: Macron and Meloni have allegedly agreed to send SAMP/T missile systems to Ukraine — a plan Mercouris has no doubt exists. Alexander Mercouris 13:45 “a story from La Repubblica, a major Italian newspaper, is currently circulating. And now Macron and Meloni have allegedly agreed to send SAMP/T missile systems to Ukraine, which is absolutely true. I have no doubt that such a plan exists.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 13:45 The verified La Repubblica report of August 26, 2026, by Tommaso Ciriaco and Gianluca Di Feo, is headlined "Batterie contraeree e radar, così il governo in segreto manda armamenti a Kiev" — anti-aircraft batteries and radar, with which the government secretly sends armaments to Kyiv. La Repubblica Corroborates Batterie contraeree e radar, così il governo in segreto manda armamenti a Kiev Verified Media Report Read Source Article His caveat lands on the timeline: most of these systems don't exist yet, so they won't be in Ukraine for years to come — exactly what La Repubblica doesn't actually say. Alexander Mercouris 13:58 “I have no doubt that such a plan exists. The problem is that most of these systems don't exist yet. So they won't be in Ukraine for years to come. And this is exactly what La Repubblica doesn't actually say.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 13:58 The report's standfirst says Rome has announced only the generators, but is ready to send SAMP/T and Aster systems, and will use a decree to avoid splitting the governing majority. La Repubblica Context Batterie contraeree e radar, così il governo in segreto manda armamenti a Kiev Verified Media Report Read Source Article

The Most Dangerous Moment

Christoforou's frame: everyone was activated. The deep state activated everyone — Macron, Meloni, Kellogg, Pence, the Vatican. Alex Christoforou 15:22 “The deep state activated everyone. Macron, Meloni, Kellogg, Pence. Vatican, sent to Vatican.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 15:22 They go to extreme measures, he argues, because of who knows the situation best: the person who knows and understands best how bad Ukraine really is, is the one leading the war — the director of the CIA. That's why he went to Moscow. Alex Christoforou 15:51 “The person who knows and understands this best is the one who is leading the war in Ukraine, the director of the CIA. That's why he's there. That's why he went to Moscow.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 15:51 Not about Iran, Mercouris insists: the Americans have many ways to convey messages about Iran and are in constant dialogue with the Russians about it — this is about Ukraine and the crisis unfolding there. Alexander Mercouris 16:10 “The Americans have many ways to convey this message to the Russians about Iran, and they are constantly engaged in a dialogue with them about Iran. This is about Ukraine and the crisis unfolding there.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 16:10 Though some of the offered sweets, he allows, may have been: he wouldn't be surprised if some of the "sweets" Ratcliffe offered were related to Iran — a grand deal mixing threats and bonuses, carrot-and-stick. Alexander Mercouris 16:30 “I wouldn't be surprised if some of the "sweets " that Ratcliffe offered were related to Iran.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 16:30

His overall judgment is stark: this is the most dangerous moment in the war — going all out now indicates the situation is becoming critical, they will do everything they can to force the Russians to stop, and the Russians show neither interest nor intention of stopping. Alexander Mercouris 17:49 “I think this is the most dangerous moment in the war, because the fact that they are going all out now indicates that the situation is becoming critical, and now they will do everything they can to try to force the Russians to stop. The Russians show neither interest nor intention to stop.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 17:49 The mechanics of the danger are psychological: desperate people are afraid, scared people are angry, and decisions made in anger — there will be many over the next few weeks — are extremely dangerous because nobody steps back and thinks things through. Alexander Mercouris 18:16 “But people who are desperate are people who are afraid; people who are scared are people who are angry. Decisions made in anger—and we'll see a lot of them over the next few weeks—are extremely dangerous because people don't take a step back and think things through properly.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 18:16 Ratcliffe himself is built for exactly this failure mode: a neoconservative to the core — and neoconservatives don't have reverse gear. Alexander Mercouris 18:32 “Ratcliffe is—let me put it bluntly—a neoconservative to the core. What do we always say about neoconservatives? They don't have reverse gear.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 18:32 And Trump is panicking too: he sees that he can lose two wars in one term — the Ukraine war now his responsibility, his "Ukraine project" failing, and Iran still very difficult. Alexander Mercouris 18:47 “Yes, and we must understand that Trump is also in a panic. The Trump White House and himself, Trump as a person, because he sees that he can lose two wars in one term.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 18:47 It is the position the program warned about in summer 2024, when it advised Trump to distance himself from the mess, and the people who pushed both wars are the same: the people who pushed Trump to attack Iran are the same people who pushed him to continue fighting the Russians in Ukraine — the same neoconservative cohort in Washington. Alexander Mercouris 20:21 “the people who pushed Trump to attack Iran are the same people who pushed Trump to continue fighting the Russians in Ukraine. In the United States, in Washington, it is the same neoconservative cohort that supported both wars.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 20:21 When both end in disaster, the scapegoat is already chosen: it will be Donald Trump — exactly as the program predicted two years ago. Alexander Mercouris 20:42 “And when both wars end in disaster, who will be the scapegoat? Who will blame everyone? It will be Donald Trump. Exactly as we predicted two years ago.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 20:42

St. Petersburg, the Three-Part Answer, and the Walk-Away

Mid-episode, news breaks: a car carrying a Russian military official was blown up in St. Petersburg. Alex Christoforou 21:01 “A car carrying a Russian military official was blown up in St. Petersburg.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 21:01 Mercouris expects the tempo to rise from here: the secret war is going to gain momentum. Alex Christoforou 21:16 “the secret war is going to gain momentum” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 21:16 Russia's reaction to the pressure and the killing, he predicts, will have three parts. First, the offensive continues regardless: whoever the murdered person was, they will not deviate from their path. Alexander Mercouris 22:11 “But, whoever this murdered person was, they will not deviate from their path. They will continue the war. This is the first.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 22:11 Second, the nuclear reminders are already under way: major naval exercises in the Arctic and the White Sea — steps to remind the world of Russia's nuclear potential, to which this murder may even be related. Alexander Mercouris 22:21 “they are already taking more and more steps to remind us of their nuclear potential. We had large-scale training. And this murder may be related to these exercises. They are currently conducting major naval exercises in the Arctic and the White Sea.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 22:21 The Poseidon nuclear torpedo is apparently being put into operation, and a new special class of submarine is being deployed — an extremely powerful weapon, and a reminder of Russia's deterrent potential. Alexander Mercouris 22:45 “a nuclear torpedo, is now being put into operation. And a new special class of submarine is being deployed. This is an extremely powerful weapon that serves as a reminder that Russia has this significant deterrent potential.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 22:45 Third — sooner or later, a dirty war: the Russians will not just sit back and let their people be killed endlessly. Alexander Mercouris 23:08 “the Russians will move on to a dirty war. They will not just sit back and let their people be killed endlessly.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 23:08 Behind that prediction he places a tense Putin-military meeting: a few months ago, the military demanded more decisive action and criticized the FSB for not protecting the Russian military enough. Alexander Mercouris 23:20 “there was a very tense meeting between Putin and the military, at which the military demanded more decisive action and criticized the FSB for not protecting the Russian military enough.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 23:20

The exit, both hosts agree, remains available. Trump could just walk away from all this — tell Ratcliffe to forget about it. Alexander Mercouris 23:48 “Trump could just walk away from all this, tell Ratcliffe to just forget about it.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 23:48 The public, Mercouris argues, would not punish him: Ukraine is an obsession of Europe's political class and Washington's neocons, but the vast majority of Americans don't care — they are a little more concerned about Iran and the Persian Gulf. Alexander Mercouris 24:27 “Ukraine is an all-consuming, obsessive topic in Europe among the political class there. This is an obsessive topic for a small group of people in the political class, the neocons in Washington. The vast majority of Americans don't care. They are a little more concerned about Iran and the Persian Gulf” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 24:27 He could leave Ukraine, and it would probably have no significant impact on his popularity at all. Alexander Mercouris 25:04 “So yes, he could leave Ukraine, and I doubt that it would have any significant impact on his popularity at all.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 25:04 What stands in the way is Trump himself: a very insecure person, easily manipulated, who has made mistake after mistake regarding Ukraine and will continue to do so. Alexander Mercouris 25:18 “But Trump is a very insecure person, as we have discussed on many programs. He is easily manipulated, which we have unfortunately also seen. He has made mistake after mistake regarding Ukraine, and will continue to do so” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 25:18

Everything in this episode is the hosts' attributed reading of unnamed and cited reporting. Whether the Russians keep saying no, whether the SAMP/T systems ever exist, and whether Trump takes the walk-away are questions the coming weeks will answer.