How did Home Depot become America's best-performing stock?

Long Read·5 min read·8 sections

Two fired executives, the banker whose stock buying accidentally caused their dismissal, and an insolvent merchandiser built the only specialty retailer in the Costco-Walmart-Amazon tier. Nearly 25% annual compounding for 45 years rests on a warehouse model, a trades-expert workforce, an equity culture - and American houses that keep aging.

Contents 8 sections
  1. Introduction
  2. An accidental founding
  3. The warehouse and the people in it
  4. The equity machine
  5. Nardelli: growth without value
  6. Blake's discipline
  7. Why the moat held
  8. The aging-house flywheel

Introduction

Two fired executives with no savings, a banker who accidentally caused the firing, and a merchandiser whose own store was insolvent built the only specialty retailer that competes with Costco, Walmart, and Amazon. The stock has compounded at nearly 25% a year for 45 years. The answer to how runs through a warehouse, a workforce of former tradespeople, an equity machine - and the fact that America's houses keep getting older.

An accidental founding

Bernie Marcus ran Handy Dan for the conglomerate Daylin; Arthur Blank was his CFO; Ken Langone was the New York banker who discovered the stock at $3 against $1.50 of expected earnings and bought almost 20% of the company - everything except a Brooklyn church's 50,000-share block. That accumulation is what got the founders fired. Daylin's turnaround CEO Sandy Sigoloff wanted Langone's stake gone; when Bernie asked Langone to sell and end the pressure, Langone warned him exactly what would happen: Langone sold at $25.50 a share in early 1978, and three months later Sigoloff fired Marcus, Blank, and audit manager Ron Brill, using a labor-relations investigation he had started against his own company as the pretext. At breakfast at the Waldorf Astoria the next day, Langone reframed the disaster: The store concept came from Sol Price's Price Club in San Diego: A $2 million round from Ross Perot collapsed in an argument over Bernie's old Cadillac, so Langone assembled

The warehouse and the people in it

The first two stores opened in Atlanta on June 22, 1979, in subleased J.C. Penney locations - Prices ran 10 to 25% below competitors on roughly 30% gross margins, with 25,000 SKUs against the industry's roughly 8,000. The 1981 IPO - pitched while interest rates peaked above 20% - raised about $4 million at a $32 million market cap, and by 1989 Home Depot had passed Lowe's. The uncopyable part was labor. Copycats with heavy capital did appear: Home Depot recruited former plumbers, electricians, and carpenters as floor staff and bundled education with products; unless a copycat copied the labor model, the model did not work.

The equity machine

Because the company went public early with most of the upside ahead, the stock became an operating input. Onboarding taught associates what equity was and connected floor work to the share price; thousands of early associates became multimillionaires. Langone's summary, from the hosts' research interview: "When you tap into people's basic instincts, good things happen."

Nardelli: growth without value

GE's Bob Nardelli arrived in 2000, doubled revenue and profits, and grew the chain from 1,100 to 2,000 stores - while replacing the trades-expert floor workforce with part-time general labor. Customer satisfaction fell from near the top of US retail to dead last. Same-store comps stayed flat through his tenure while Lowe's grew; $20 billion of buybacks and dividends did not move the stock, because institutional investors' discounted-cash-flow models saw a business whose future profits were not growing. The end came at the 2006 shareholder meeting in Wilmington, where no directors appeared and questioners' microphones were cut. Nardelli was fired on January 2, 2007, with an $18 million cash severance and a package valued at $210 million.

Blake's discipline

Frank Blake - a lawyer, former Supreme Court clerk, and GE M&A head whom Bernie had dismissed as "another goddamn GE guy" - re-founded the culture: 90% of his own pay in stock options, a call to Bernie, the inverted pyramid, and a full stop to new stores. He closed about 30 of 2,300 stores, took a billion-dollar write-off on the store pipeline, and opened almost nothing for eleven years. With Ken Langone's nudging he sold the HD Supply distribution business for about $8.3 billion in 2007 and put it into buybacks: The growth without stores came from e-commerce: rapid deployment centers from 2009, store pickup as a large share of online orders, and a specialty logistics network that bulky, heavy, urgent goods make nearly unassailable for general-merchandise rivals.

Why the moat held

In the seven powers analysis, the hosts found Home Depot sustainably but only marginally more profitable than Lowe's, with scale economies dominant at roughly three times Lowe's scale - the cheapest supplier prices and the best house-brand manufacturers. Early counterpositioning against fragmented regional hardware became, today, counterpositioning against Amazon's logistics. Switching costs and branding concentrate among pros who have integrated Home Depot into their workflows - a 2015-era statistic had the average pro at 66 visits and $65,000 a year against the DIY customer's five visits and $330.

The aging-house flywheel

The deepest tailwind is structural. Home Depot was founded and IPOed into a market of houses that only get older, while annual spending on improvements and repairs grew from $28 billion in 1975 to about $600 billion today. The hosts' closing equation multiplied six factors - the warehouse-category fit, the giant market, the captured winner-take-most share, aging housing, DIY invented at scale, and the pro market's running room - and added a seventh multiplier: a century of US policy that built a nation of single-family homeowners on 30-year mortgages. Their parting management lesson:

Interview Highlights

7 exchanges
  • Q

    Ken kept buying up Handy Dan's shares even as he grew close to Bernie and Arthur - how did that lead to the founders' ousting from Handy Dan?

    Ben Gilbert asked28:02
    A
    David Rosenthal answered

    Ken had become a de facto board member of Handy Dan, flying around the country to store openings and growing closer to Bernie and Arthur than Daylin's new CEO, the turnaround artist Sandy Sigoloff - a man who called himself 'Ming the Merciless.' Sigoloff wanted Ken's near-19% stake bought back, but after a men's-room negotiation over price Ken refused to sell at $14 and hung up on him. Bernie, feeling the pressure, eventually asked Ken to sell anyway; Ken warned him: 'If I sell, he's going to turn around and fire your ass. He can't stand to see you being successful.' In early 1978 Ken sold at $25.50 a share, leaving Sigoloff with essentially the whole company, and just as Ken predicted, three months later Sigoloff fired Bernie, Arthur, and audit manager Ron Brill, using a labor-relations investigation he started against his own company as the pretext. Sigoloff could not have done that while a large outside shareholder remained to object; once he owned the whole company, he could consolidate power.

  • Q

    How was Home Depot able to act like a company at scale before it actually had scale?

    Ben Gilbert asked01:22:18
    A
    David Rosenthal answered

    They combined Pat Farrah's aggressiveness from Homeco with Bernie and Arthur's operations and finance genius - and a lot of illusion. They sold the dream to suppliers and financiers: max out the debt those suppliers would extend, and keep the plates spinning by convincing the ecosystem they were legitimate. In Built from Scratch the founders put it: 'We had to be psychologists, lovers, romancers, and con artists to get our suppliers aboard... we were good at selling futures. You need to do this for us now, we'd tell vendors, because down the road, we will have 50 stores.' They appealed to vendors' greed, their enthusiasm for new concepts, and their need to get their products exposed. Selling the future is fine as long as you make the future come true; it only fails if you promise volume you never deliver. And the downside was bounded: if it did not work, you declared bankruptcy and, like Pat Farrah, joined the next thing.

  • Q

    It's the go-go 1980s with plenty of capital around - why didn't well-funded copycats emerge and eat Home Depot's lunch?

    David Rosenthal asked01:24:45
    A
    Ben Gilbert answered

    There were copycats - Builder's Square, Home Club, HomeQuarters Warehouse, Mr. HOW Warehouse - all launched with heavy capital in the 1980s, and none are around today. The reason: as Home Depot scaled, it was not 'Costco for hardware.' Costco is a general merchandise retailer; Home Depot is a specialty retailer, and specialty retail requires serving customers in ways unique to each market - tire shops install, beauty counters offer makeovers, Apple has the Genius Bar. Home Depot essentially invented what customer service means in home improvement; before it, hardware stores offered none. The uncopyable part was the labor model. Home Depot recruited former tradespeople - plumbers, electricians, carpenters - as floor staff, betting that steady hours, no client management, and no physical wear would pull them off contracting. That staff taught DIY customers how to actually complete projects, bundling education with products; customers who felt empowered took on bigger projects and bigger baskets. The copycats hired regular retail employees, and without copying the labor model the model did not work.