When a War Cannot Be Won, Can a Victory Image Be Manufactured First?
Introduction
The program opens with a report on Trump considering expanding strikes against Iran. Alexander Mercouris reminds listeners that Trump has repeatedly previewed large-scale actions in the past, and while the actual attacks caused damage, they did not deliver the decisive results advertised. Alexander Mercouris 00:50 “Trump has made many claims that he's going to conduct massive strikes against Iran.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 00:50
What truly limits America's options this time is not whether a particular target can be destroyed. Christoforou puts the entire period's problem bluntly: "The whole thing revolves around Hormuz." Alex Christoforou 03:24 “The whole thing is about Hormuz.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 03:24
As long as shipping through the strait remains disrupted, military action will keep converting into costs in oil prices, reserves, and domestic politics. What the United States needs is not merely a stronger strike, but an exit path that can restore shipping while allowing the president to declare success.
Every military option carries a next-layer problem
The program lists several possibilities: continuing to expand airstrikes, preparing the conditions for ground operations, reaching and honoring an agreement, or seeking a highly visible symbolic target.
The problem with expanding airstrikes, in the program's view, is that past rounds of action have not stopped Iran from retaliating. Ground operations would require clear objectives, executors, and long-term protection. Negotiations, in turn, are constrained by mutual distrust. When the hosts discuss these options, it does not mean the United States has already made a choice; rather, it illustrates why each path opens up new costs.
What Pickaxe Mountain offers first and foremost is a narrative
The hosts describe Pickaxe Mountain as an extremely visual target: launch a striking attack, announce that the remaining enriched uranium has been destroyed, and then package the operation as a historic victory. Alex Christoforou 07:31 “Very cinematic, right? Pickaxe Mountain.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 07:31
The core of this scenario is not that the program has proven what is inside the mountain, nor that an attack is necessarily effective. It is meant to solve a political language problem: how the United States can stop its current operations without forcing Iran to capitulate, and without describing the stop as a withdrawal.
Christoforou further envisions that Trump would declare the strike a victory, the blockade lifted, Hormuz reopened, and oil prices fallen. Alex Christoforou 13:49 “He'll sell Pickaxe Mountain as this big military victory for the United States.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 13:49 This entire chain of outcomes is conditional speculation. The subtitles do not prove that Iran would resume shipping because of a U.S. pause, nor that oil prices would fall according to a political timetable.
The off-ramp may be only a buffer before the next round
The program calls this approach an off-ramp, but the hosts do not believe it would end the conflict. The United States could use the pause to replenish weapons and energy reserves, and Iran could use the same period to strengthen its own preparations.
Christoforou connects the scenario to the U.S. midterm elections: if several months of stability follow a high-visibility strike, Trump could sell the narrative of "reopening Hormuz and lowering oil prices" on the campaign trail. Alexander Mercouris 13:20 “Midterms are in November.” Direct Audio Anchor Listen from 13:20
This remains only the hosts' prediction about political timing. It depends on multiple unconfirmed conditions: the United States choosing that target, Iran accepting the pause, shipping recovering, oil prices falling, and the next round of conflict not arriving early.
An image cannot substitute for results
The most valuable part of this episode is not predicting which mountain the United States will definitely bomb, but distinguishing between military results and political presentation.
An explosion can provide a clear image, a speech can name the operation, and short-term oil price changes may ease political pressure. But none of these alone can resolve the shipping arrangements in Hormuz, U.S. stockpiles, Iran's nuclear question, or the mutual lack of credible agreements between the two sides.
Thus, Pickaxe Mountain functions in the program more as a test: when a war cannot produce a decisive victory, will a government choose to narrow its objectives, enter negotiations, or first manufacture a moment that looks sufficiently like victory? The answer is not in the image of the explosion, but in what comes after the image — whether shipping recovers, whether attacks stop, and whether the two sides establish arrangements that can hold.