Russia Rejects Vatican and CIA Ceasefire Demands

With the Vatican envoy and CIA director Ratcliffe both just in Moscow, the hosts read Lavrov's follow-up statements as Russia's formal closing of the diplomatic door: negotiations were tried going back to 2014, goodwill is exhausted because Western diplomacy is 'based on deception', no ultimatum was given to Ratcliffe over US assistance in Ukrainian strikes — it was discussed in every meeting — and 'the end has come' for talks, so the outcome will be military and decided on the battlefields. The Vatican official, in Lavrov's account, offered no counterarguments, just 'agree to a ceasefire', and Lula — enlisted with Trump's blessing ahead of a difficult election — got the same door slammed in Putin's call. The hosts add the New York Times' narrative shift on Ratcliffe's trip: not a warning over Latvia, but an attempt to 'help Putin' with correct intel about a war he is supposedly being deceived about — which Mercouris ridicules, noting Ratcliffe met the intelligence people, Naryshkin and Bortnikov, not Putin or Lavrov, and asking when the CIA last held out a helping hand to the Russians. On the front, Reuters' report that Ukraine is sending Azov to the Donbas lines near Kramatorsk and Slavyansk sets up the episode's military half. Mercouris's assessment: this cannot turn the Russian military back. The Russians are tightening their ring around the fortified towns from all four directions — per the Russian military's own account halfway through Oleksiyivka, entered Druzhkivka, closing on Dobropillya — with encirclement weeks or months away. If Dobropillya falls the whole line can be outflanked, leaving Ukraine the choice between a cauldron of tens of thousands — the better part of its army — or giving up Donbas and in effect eastern Ukraine, since beyond it nothing stops the Russians until the river. Zelensky has chosen to defend with his best troops, setting the scene for a possible massive encirclement battle: the decisive battle of the war. The closing arc is political: the Mariupol precedent — encircled Azov leaders deported to Turkey under a Zelensky–Erdogan deal, then returned when Erdogan broke promises to Russia, to Putin's swallowed anger — explains why Azov is a law unto itself with huge political pull in Kiev. If encircled, they will likely retreat without obeying orders, and a confrontation between Azov and Zelensky is one the hosts say Zelensky will not survive.

1. Lavrov's statements mark Russia's formal closing of the diplomatic door: goodwill exhausted because Western diplomacy is based on deception, no ultimatum to Ratcliffe though the topic recurred in every meeting, and 'the end has come' — the outcome will be military, decided on the battlefields.

2. Per the New York Times, the narrative on Ratcliffe's trip has flipped: not a warning over Latvia but an attempt to help Putin with correct intelligence about a war he is supposedly being deceived about, aimed at pushing the Kremlin toward peace talks.

3. Ratcliffe met the intelligence people — Naryshkin and Bortnikov — not Putin or Lavrov: the very people supposedly deceiving Putin, which the hosts read as underscoring the absurdity of the mission.

4. The Azov deployment cannot turn the Russian military back: the ring around the Donbas fortified towns is tightening from all four directions, with encirclement weeks or months away and the outflanking of the whole line imminent if Dobropillya falls.

5. Ukraine's dilemma: hold the fortified towns and risk a cauldron of tens of thousands — the better part of the army across a string of towns — or retreat, giving up Donbas and in effect eastern Ukraine, since beyond it nothing stops the Russians until the river.

6. Azov are a law unto themselves with huge political pull in Kiev; encircled, they will likely retreat without orders — and a confrontation between Azov and Zelensky is one Zelensky is not going to survive.

• Q

  What did Lavrov tell the Vatican envoy and the CIA director in Moscow?

  Alex Christoforou asked00:22
  A

  Alexander Mercouris answered

  Lavrov, in Mercouris's account, all but confirmed that Ratcliffe's Moscow visit was about Ukraine, and he discussed in some detail the exchange with Gallagher, the Vatican official sent to Moscow. The two visits at the same time were no coincidence: one was there to provide the ethical push, the other the hardline push to get the Russians to stop. Lavrov's message to both, as reconstructed from his statements: negotiations have been tried going back all the way to 2014, there has been no shortage of goodwill on the Russian side, and that goodwill has now gone, because Western policy and Western diplomacy are based on deception — the keyword. On the question of an ultimatum over US assistance in Ukrainian strikes against Russia, Lavrov said none was given, though it was discussed in every meeting. The consequence he draws: negotiations can only be based on trust, there is no trust, so the only outcome now is military, to be decided on the battlefields. In effect, both the Vatican official and the CIA director were given the brush-off.

• Q

  Can the Azov deployment to the Donbas front lines stop the Russian advance?

  Alex Christoforou asked15:53
  A

  Alexander Mercouris answered

  Certainly not by turning the Russian military back. In Mercouris's account the Russians are tightening their ring around the fortified towns of the Donbas defense line — to the east, north, south, and west of them — and the encirclement is close now: not tomorrow or next week, but within the next few weeks or months. By the Russian military's own account they are halfway through capturing the southernmost of the towns, Oleksiyivka, have entered Druzhkivka, and are close to Dobropillya; if Dobropillya falls, the Russians can outflank the whole line. That leaves the Ukrainians a difficult decision: stay and risk a cauldron — not of a few thousand men but of tens of thousands, the better part of the Ukrainian army, since a whole string of towns is involved — or retreat and give up Donbas, in effect giving up eastern Ukraine, since beyond the Donbas urban sprawl and its difficult topography nothing stops the Russians until the river in its central sections, while they can also advance north towards Kharkiv or into the Chernihiv region with a large force concentrated. For now the decision is to defend, sending the best troops — consistent with the way Zelensky conducts the war — and that could set the scene for a massive encirclement battle, the decisive battle in the war.