顿巴斯之后普京的条件：最后通牒、敖德萨与基辅之问

停火之后：没有僵局

三天胜利日停火结束之后，亚历克斯·克里斯托福鲁和亚历山大·默库里斯回到他们几个月来一直坚持的判断：这场战争并没有陷入僵持。 克里斯托福鲁从拦截率说起：乌克兰的防空力量，他说，已经严重枯竭——这一点连乌克兰自己也承认。 Alex Christoforou 00:28 “one thing is clear, Ukraine's air defenses are badly depleted. You can tell by the interception rates of the Russian missiles and drones, which even Ukraine now is acknowledging” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 00:28

这套读法如今进入了主流媒体。 《金融时报》5月13日的报道援引两名自称了解普京看法的人士称，俄军指挥官已让普京相信，他的部队能在秋季之前夺取整个顿巴斯，并讨论了可能包括基辅和敖德萨在内的进一步领土要求。 Financial Times 独立证实 Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy cool on US-led peace talks 独立媒体核实报道 阅读原文报道 对两位主持人来说，这是印证而非新闻。 克里斯托福鲁说，顿巴斯才是主战场——而一旦这场战役了结，俄罗斯和普京就会向西方拿出新条件。 Alex Christoforou 01:09 “The Russian military can take Donbas, and then they're going to issue uh new terms to Ukraine. Something that we've been saying Yeah. for a while now, you brought it up, that's that most likely you would be looking at Donbas, which is the main battle. That would be the battle that's going to get that's going to be concluded, and once that's concluded uh Russia and Putin will will come out with new terms to to the West.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 01:09

不对称的空中战争

默库里斯先谈乌克兰对俄罗斯的无人机袭击，他承认这些袭击让普京难堪： 俄罗斯空天军司令、一个叫阿法扎洛夫的人据报已被解职，据传与图阿普谢事件有关。 Alexander Mercouris 01:53 “this information that the head of the Russian Aerospace Forces, a man called Afzalov, has been sacked. The word, by the way, is that this is about the Tuapse affair. That the thing that provoked his sacking was the Tuapse episode.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 01:53 但他重复两人讲过多次的观点，坚持这些打击改变不了战争： 破坏归破坏，它们改变不了战争的走向，撼动不了俄罗斯经济，也引发不了俄罗斯的政治危机。 Alexander Mercouris 02:29 “are not going to ultimately change the direction of the war or affect the state of the Russian economy or cause a political crisis in Russia or do any of these things.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 02:29 他更进一步，把整场行动称为资源错配： 乌克兰和中央情报局——他说这次行动基本上是中情局在操盘——把资源投在一场客观上收效甚微的空中攻势上，这些资源本可以更有效地用在为前线发展无人机防御上。 Alexander Mercouris 02:56 “they are a mistake. Ukraine and the CIA, which is basically running this operation, are expending resources on this air offensive against Russia, which in objective terms is achieving very little. Resources which might have been more effectively spent doing other things, such as, perhaps, developing more drone defenses for the Ukrainian military on the front lines.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 02:56

相比之下，俄罗斯对乌克兰的打击在他的描述中规模要大得多、威力强得多、组织性也强得多，使用多种先进的无人机——有的由莫斯科后方的空中管制员操控，有的是喷气动力，有的挂载拦截弹，有的携带炸弹。 Alexander Mercouris 03:37 “the drone attacks and the missile attacks, are on a far bigger scale. And they are far more powerful. And they are far more organized. And they use now many different types of very sophisticated drones. Drones that um some of them can be controlled by air controllers back in Moscow, others which are jet-powered, some of which carry interceptors, some of which carry bombs.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 03:37 如今每晚都有数百架无人机打过来，白天也一样；而在乌克兰大部分地区，他说，防空系统已经不存在。 Alexander Mercouris 04:24 “We have hundreds of drones every night. And now also in daylight, the Ukrainian defenses are indeed very depleted. Apparently, I mean, in across much of Ukraine, they don't exist anymore.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 04:24 前线的背后同样吃紧： 他援引关于前线部队燃料短缺的消息，以及兵员危机比以往任何时候都严重的报道。 Alexander Mercouris 05:16 “we we have information about uh fuel shortages, fuel shortages for the military on the front lines. And all of this is compounding further problems with um more reports now that the personnel crisis, the um shortage of soldiers, is now worse than it's ever been.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 05:16

征兵危机走向暴力

默库里斯把空中战争与后方危机并置，依据的是他最近在《负责任治国》上读到的一篇文章。 乌克兰的征兵危机已持续约两年，从上街抓人、把人塞进面包车送上前线，发展到他说迄今最冷酷、最极端的程度——反制暴力也在蔓延：枪击征兵人员的事件，以及少年持刀袭击征兵人员的事件。 Alexander Mercouris 05:56 “We've had people going out into the streets, seizing men in the streets, bundling them into vans and sending them to the front lines. Well, that has apparently now reached the most um ruthless and extreme levels that we've seen up to now. And there there is now counter violence against it and it's becoming more extensive. There's been shooting incidents against recruiters. There's been incidents where um boys have attacked recruiters with knives, things of that kind. This is all in from this article in Responsible Statecraft.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 05:56 《负责任治国》5月13日的报道记录了有时蒙面的人员把男子从街头和家中拖进面包车，以及针对征兵军官的枪击事件和少年持刀袭击事件。 Responsible Statecraft 独立证实 Ukraine's conscription crisis is getting increasingly bloody 独立媒体核实报道 阅读原文报道

同一篇文章，他指出，还就战争的信息周期做了一个更宏观的观察： 整场战争期间，西方总会经历短暂的亢奋期——乌克兰在赢、前线正在企稳、我们处于僵局、俄国人被挡住了——而眼下这一轮亢奋正走向结束。 Alexander Mercouris 08:59 “responsible statecraft article said that throughout the war we have these brief periods of euphoria in the West. Ukraine is winning. The situation on the front lines is stabilizing. We have a stalemate. The Russians are stalled.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 08:59

顿巴斯年内落幕

在前线本身，默库里斯说，没有僵局。 短暂的胜利日停火结束之后，俄国人正大举进攻——显然在扎波罗热方向濒临突破、推向奥列霍夫这座扎波罗热市之前的重镇，康斯坦丁诺夫卡的乌军防御正在逐渐崩塌，斯拉维扬斯克的情况越来越糟。 Alexander Mercouris 08:06 “the Russians now are very much on the attack. They apparently are on the brink of breaking through in Zaporozhye towards Orekhov which is the key town before the city of Zaporozhye itself. There's apparently now a gradual collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the town of Konstantinovka. In Sloviansk things are getting worse and worse.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 08:06 他说，尽管有种种否认和佯装，很明显，顿巴斯战役正在走向终结。 Alexander Mercouris 08:36 “It's clear that the Battle of Donbas is coming to an end. Despite you know all these denials and all these pretenses that it isn't.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 08:36

被问到俄罗斯能否在秋天、或者说2026年底之前完成顿巴斯行动时，他毫不迟疑： 就眼下前线的态势而言，这听起来完全合理。 Alexander Mercouris 09:39 “I think it sounds perfectly reasonable based on what we're seeing on the front lines at the moment.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 09:39 其机制是加速。 陷落的城市越多，拿下其余城市就越快、越容易——波克罗夫斯克之后，拿下康斯坦丁诺夫卡用时要少得多；而一旦它陷落，斯拉维扬斯克、克拉马托尔斯克、德鲁日科夫卡就会随着补给线日益困难而显得孤立，直到局面开始变得像一排多米诺骨牌。 Alexander Mercouris 09:49 “the more cities fall, the faster it and easier it becomes to capture the remaining ones. So, if Pokrovsk fell, then after Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka fell. It took time to take Pokrovsk. It's taking apparently rather less time to take Kostyantynivka. But then once you've taken Kostyantynivka, the remaining places, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, begin to look isolated. The supply lines become more difficult to these places. So, it starts to become like a row of dominoes. When one falls, it leads to the fall of the other. And the process gradually accelerates.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 09:49 俄军的攻势，他说，有其季节规律——四五月缓慢启动、逐渐积攒势头，夏季迅速提速，夏末初秋一座座地方陷落，2024年如此，2025年也如此。 Alexander Mercouris 10:44 “the pattern of Russian offensives is that they start in the spring, in April, May. They start gradually. They gradually build up momentum. Then, during the summer months, we get a rapid acceleration. And then, in the late summer, early autumn, you start to see places fall. This was the pattern in 2024. It was the pattern in 2025.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 10:44 剩下要陷落的就是顿巴斯剩余的关键城市，因为顿巴斯除此之外已经没有别的了——至于时间，他刻意保守： 秋天嘛，“保守一点，就说年底吧”。 Alexander Mercouris 11:25 “they're going to fall is the key remaining cities in Donbas. Because in Donbas, there isn't any more anything else. Now, autumn, well, let's say the end of the year to be more conservative.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 11:25

条件、最后通牒与基辅之问

《金融时报》那篇文章谈到了基辅和敖德萨——说普京实际上会索要基辅本身，这对他甚至比敖德萨更重要。 默库里斯转述了这一说法，但并不认同：他本人并不认为普京会这么做。 Alexander Mercouris 11:57 “that Financial Times article um spoke about Kiev and Odessa. That Putin is going to actually demand Kiev itself. That this is even more important for him than Odessa. Is taking Kiev. I don't myself think that is what Putin is going to do. I don't think that's what the Russians are going to do.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 11:57 他自己的条件清单从领土和联盟开始： 乌克兰必须从扎波罗热和赫尔松撤出，从其他同类地区、也许还有边境沿线的某些地方撤出，必须最终承诺不加入北约——而且他认为，还要承诺不加入欧盟。 Alexander Mercouris 12:28 “Ukraine must withdraw from Zaporozhye and Kherson. There must also be a withdrawal um from other areas that are you know, Russian things of that kind. So, you know, from places maybe along the border and things of that kind. Obviously, they're going to insist that Ukraine finally commit not to join NATO. I think they will also demand that Ukraine commit not to join the EU.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 12:28 而大头，在他看来，是政治性的： 彻底重构乌克兰的政治制度，他说，推行联邦化的时机已经到了。 Alexander Mercouris 13:04 “I think the big thing that they're going to demand is that they're going to want a complete reconstruction of the political system in Ukraine. Um You've mentioned federalization in the past. I think they're going to say the time has come to move towards federalization.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 13:04

这份清单一直伸到国家最高层。 泽连斯基本人及其身边的精英集团必须下台——俄国已多次表示不承认他是乌克兰的合法领导人——新的临时政府要吸纳反对派人士，比如目前在俄罗斯的察廖夫，以及其他流亡俄罗斯的前反对党人物。 Alexander Mercouris 13:26 “and the elite around him step down. They've already said many times that they don't accept him as the legitimate leader of Ukraine. They're going to say that there should be a new interim government created. They're going to demand that some of the people who [snorts] make up that interim government should be people from the opposition, people like uh um uh Tsaryov, who's currently in Russia. Other people like people from the former uh opposition parties who are also now in exile in Russia.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 13:26 既然这一切泽连斯基都不可能接受，俄国人摆上桌的就算不上提议： 那实际上更像最后通牒，然后战争会继续，接着是一场指向敖德萨的行动。 Alexander Mercouris 14:07 “all of that is going to be unacceptable to Zelensky. He's not going to agree to it. And then the offer from the Russians will not be exactly an offer. It will be more an ultimatum, actually. And then the war will continue. And then we will see an operation towards Odessa.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 14:07

至于会不会也有一场指向基辅的行动，他不太确定——但可以说，做这件事的棋子正在被摆上棋盘。 苏梅和哈尔科夫地区那些非常古怪的行动，确实开始看起来像是在为进军基辅做准备；还有很多传言说白俄罗斯境内正在集结后勤和运输线，也许是为了像2022年那样从白俄罗斯向基辅推进。 Alexander Mercouris 14:38 “you could argue that the pieces are being put into place to do it. So, all of these really strange operations in Sumy and Kharkiv region, they do begin to look like they're preparations for an advance on Kiev. And there's been lots of rumors of some kind of a build-up um of logistics, transport links, and that kind of thing in Belarus, perhaps for an advance towards Kiev from Belarus, as we saw in 2022.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 14:38 如果真到来，那不会是重演： 不会再是2000人飞过来抢机场、后面再跟2万人，而是一支几十万久经战阵的大军，装甲车辆多得多，还有成群的无人机。 Alexander Mercouris 15:18 “it will not be 2,000 men turning up and trying to capture an airport with another 20,000 following behind them. It's going to be an army of hundreds of thousands of men, battle-tested, battle-trained, far more armored vehicles, fleets of drones. It will be a completely different operation from the one we saw in 2022.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 15:18

克里斯托福鲁进一步指出，对乌克兰领导层来说，基辅才是更让人心惊的赌注。 丢掉敖德萨，是乌克兰的危机；丢掉基辅，则是他们自身的危机——没有了基辅，他们就很难再说自己还是乌克兰的政府，而且现实地说，乌克兰可能永远也要不回来。 Alex Christoforou 15:49 “If they lose Odessa, it's a crisis for Ukraine. But if they lose Kiev, it's not just a crisis for Ukraine, it's a crisis for them. Because without Kiev, it becomes much more difficult for them to say that they are the government of Ukraine anymore. Also, the other thing to say is if they lose Kiev, Ukraine realistically may never get it back.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 15:49 这座城市在俄罗斯还承载着历史分量： 俄国的许多人把基辅视为不只是一座俄罗斯城市，而是第一座俄罗斯城市，是俄罗斯作为一个国家、一个民族诞生的地方——他强调不是每个人都这么想，但他怀疑普京身边就有不少人这么想。 Alex Christoforou 16:17 “it's also considered by many people in Russia not just a Russian city, but the first Russian city, the city where Russia as a state and a nation began. Uh so, I'm not saying everybody in Russia thinks that way, but a lot of people do. And I suspect quite a lot of people in Putin's entourage do.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 16:17

收尾时，两位主持人为这条消息加上了来源限定。 《金融时报》那篇文章的消息源是欧洲方面，而且克里斯托福鲁记得还有一个乌克兰消息源——谈基辅和敖德萨的是那些消息源，不是他们两位。 Alex Christoforou 16:52 “the sources for the Financial Times article were European sources and I believe a Ukrainian source, right? Yes, but they did also say >> about Just to be clear, they're the ones talking about Kiev and Odessa.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 16:52 默库里斯补充说，《金融时报》确实讲过采访了两名了解普京看法的人，但他不相信《金融时报》能接触到那样的人——至少在俄罗斯接触不到。 Alexander Mercouris 17:24 “The Financial Times did say that they'd spoken to two people who had knowledge of Putin's views. I don't believe the Financial Times has access to people like that, just the same. At least [snorts] not in Russia.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 17:24

本期节目中的一切——前线态势、条件清单、时间线——都是两位主持人有明确归属的解读。顿巴斯会不会在年底前陷落、俄国的条件会不会以最后通牒的形式到来，要交给未来几个月去检验。