新的不是腐败指控

节目从安德烈·叶尔马克再次面临法律压力谈起，但亚历山大·默库里斯并不认为泽连斯基核心圈子的腐败问题是新发现。 默库里斯称，Firepoint 已成为乌克兰本土军工体系的核心组成部分，主要依赖欧洲资金，并与泽连斯基身边的人物有关。 Alexander Mercouris 01:42 “they basically shown that Fire Point, which is it turns out basically what amounts to the entire Ukrainian um military industrial complex. Now, it seems to be the company that basically makes anything that's being made in Ukraine. I mean, they make drones and they're supposed to make missiles. They don't make many missiles, but they do make lots of drones and they make huge amounts of money from that, which is money sent to Ukraine mostly by Europe, which then gets invested in Firepoint and it turns out that Firepoint is run” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 01:42

这一差别很重要。两位主持人没有把重点放在证明基础指控上，而是追问案件为何在一度平息后重新出现。 默库里斯称，叶尔马克离开办公厅主任职位后仍在主持事务，泽连斯基办公室的人也继续接听他的电话。 Alexander Mercouris 03:25 “Yermak, even though he wasn't chief of staff, continued to run things. Uh the people who were working in Zelensky's office continued to take calls from him.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 03:25 按他的解释，发生变化的不是被指存在的关系网，而是有人决定再次采取行动。

默库里斯从西方寻找时机原因

默库里斯首先关注推动案件的机构。 他主张 NABU 和 SAPO 在资金及影响力上深受西方塑造，过去主要受美国驻基辅大使馆影响，现在欧盟也参与其中。 Alexander Mercouris 04:35 “the key agencies that have pushed this corruption scandal now, NABU and SAPO basically are run by the West. They used to be run until USAID was basically um broken up. They used to be run directly by the US Embassy in Kiev. Now, one hears that it's shared with the European Union.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 04:35 这是节目中有明确归属的机构判断，并非本项目独立确认的结论。

随后，他提出两种可能的压力来源。 第一，美国可能不满泽连斯基拒绝执行他所称的“安克雷奇安排”，也不愿从顿巴斯撤出。 Alexander Mercouris 05:34 “Firstly, I think that the Americans are getting very frustrated that Zelenskyy is digging in his heels. He's not implementing Anchorage. He's not pulling out of Donbas and all of that.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 05:34 第二，他认为欧洲主要国家已经把乌克兰快速加入欧盟排除在议程之外。 Alexander Mercouris 06:15 “have decided that for the moment there's absolutely no question of Ukraine joining the EU. The idea of accelerated membership for Ukraine in the EU is simply not on the agenda anymore. Malta is against it. Many countries are against it. The door has been slammed in Ukraine's face.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 06:15

资金问题把政治争议与腐败案联系起来。 默库里斯称，欧盟希望在900亿欧元对乌贷款的更多资金发放前增加检查。 Alexander Mercouris 07:26 “the EU is already now saying that there have to be more checks, more controls done before funds from the 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine um more funds can be distributed and sent to Ukraine.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 07:26 因此，他提出的是一种带保留的解释：重启案件既可能用于约束基辅，也可能为欧洲资助方加强资金控制提供理由。

保护与施压可以同时存在

克里斯托福鲁提出另一种可能：牺牲叶尔马克既能减轻负面舆论对泽连斯基的冲击，也能向总统发出警告。默库里斯认为，这两个目标并不冲突。

默库里斯指出，叶尔马克掌握乌克兰体系内部的大量联系，因此将他移出会削弱泽连斯基；但同一个动作也能让叶尔马克吸收责任，并提醒总统谁掌握政治杠杆。 Alexander Mercouris 08:59 “going after Yermak in this way does weaken Zelenskyy. I mean, Yermak has been an absolute key uh figure in Zelenskyy's entourage and I don't just mean that, you know, there's a public relations problem for Zelenskyy in this. It's also I mean, Yermak is the person who knows who to call. He has all the contacts. He's the person who's acted as Zelenskyy's um um you know, contact with the other parts of the Ukrainian system. But, you see, the point that you've just made the two are not mutually exclusive.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 08:59 他的总体判断是，这轮危机的直接来源更多在欧洲，而不是基辅或美国；不过他也清楚地把这作为解释提出，而不是声称已经证明了指挥关系。

资金轨迹最终指向国防合同

克里斯托福鲁提出的第三种情景把焦点从正式政治转向产业控制。 他认为，“乌克兰项目”的基本规则是控制资金流。 Alex Christoforou 11:47 “but at the end of the day when it comes to project Ukraine, the golden rule is that it's all about the money and it's all about controlling the money flows.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 11:47 由此，他推测欧洲政治和军工利益可能希望把 Firepoint 排除出资金链，让无人机和导弹业务转向欧洲企业。

默库里斯进一步提到德国国防部长和该国最大的军工企业。 他认为，鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯访问基辅，以及莱茵金属在欧洲无人机生产中的核心地位，都符合这样一种信息：乌克兰不要再推动加入欧盟，不要直接触动泽连斯基本人，并把国防生产中心从 Firepoint 转向莱茵金属。 Alexander Mercouris 13:40 “what supports your theory, by the way, um is that Boris Pistorius has been on a very, very, um um prominent visit to Kiev even as all of these events have been taking place in Kiev. The um you know, the the reignition of the corruption scandal. And of course, Germany is at the center of the whole uh drone manufacturing um thing that we've been hearing so much about. And of course, as you rightly said, Rheinmetall is now the key company that seems to be at the core of this. So, it could be that even as these investigations and these um prosecutions are being brought, Pistorius is also there in Kiev to convey directly the message that from now on, um um firstly, you don't talk about the EU membership. Secondly, you don't um you don't you leave Zelensky himself alone. And thirdly, no more messing around with Firepoint. It's Rheinmetall that is going to be where the action is.” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 13:40

节目最后把批评扩展到国防开支。 默库里斯称，承包商拿到了无法履行的正式合同，并转述卡娅·卡拉斯的观察：资金已经花出，却没有形成相应产出。 Alexander Mercouris 14:55 “They got formal contracts that they can't fulfill. In fact, they're not doing very much with anything. The money flows are uh pouring in and no less a person than the genius Kaja Kallas has come forward and said, "You know, it's very strange. All this money is being spent, but nothing is actually being produced by it."” 原声音频直达锚点 播放原声 14:55 这在节目内部支持了两位主持人以资金为中心的解释，但并不能证明欧洲官员策划了叶尔马克案，也不能证明莱茵金属一定会吸收 Firepoint；这些仍是需要节目之外证据支持的假说。